🌐 Global Rundown
Markets cooled slightly after the Fed stayed put — but kept its cards close.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Nasdaq held flat and the Dow shed 0.3% following the June FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged, but the dot plot revealed a more hawkish stance than the market hoped: just one rate cut projected in 2025.
Powell struck a balanced tone in the press conference — acknowledging cooling inflation but emphasizing the need for “more confidence” before loosening. The bond market responded with a modest sell-off, nudging the 10Y yield back above 4.3%.
Crypto and gold dipped, the dollar rebounded, and tech gave back some of yesterday’s gains — but volatility stayed muted.
🔍 Headlines We’re Watching
📌 Fed Holds, Dot Plot Disappoints
Only one rate cut is now expected this year, down from three projected in March. Powell: “We’re not there yet.” The market’s takeaway? Progress, but patience.
🇬🇧 UK GDP Rebounds
Britain reported 0.4% GDP growth in April, beating expectations and fueling bets the Bank of England may delay its own cuts. The pound rose 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 edged higher.
💽 Oracle Surges on AI Cloud Revenue
Oracle jumped 8.1% after reporting a 24% YoY jump in cloud infrastructure sales, led by new AI partnerships with OpenAI and Google DeepMind. Investors cheered the legacy tech giant’s successful pivot.
📊 Stock of the Day: Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle broke out to a new all-time high after blowing past quarterly estimates and issuing bullish guidance tied to its AI-driven cloud infrastructure division. With enterprise AI spending accelerating, Oracle is reaping rewards from years of backend investment.
Wall Street analysts are now revising FY25 targets upward — and some even putting Oracle in the same breath as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon in the AI arms race.
💡 Tips, Tricks & Takes
1. One cut > no cut.
Sure, the dot plot trimmed expectations — but a rate cut is still on the table. This is not a “hawkish pivot.” It’s just realism. Expect positioning to shift again with July and August data.
2. Oracle just proved the AI wave isn’t priced in for everyone.
Legacy tech firms with strong enterprise channels are waking up. Don’t overlook “boring” names with sticky customers and backend firepower.
3. Bonds aren’t out of the woods.
With fewer cuts expected, yields may stay elevated longer. If you're in long-duration bonds, be careful — the re-pricing isn't done.
4. Watch global divergence.
UK is growing. Eurozone is cutting. Japan is still stimulating. U.S. is holding. These policy gaps create massive FX and equity plays for the rest of 2025.
5. ETF Radar
ORCL (obviously)
XLK (tech sector moderation test)
TLT (long-duration bonds vs dot plot shock)
🧠 Thought of the Day
“Markets don’t trade on what is — they trade on what’s next.”
— Unknown
From the Quantorum Team
very very good